3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,316 sqft ·
Built 1984
· Manufactured
· Active
· 133 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,992/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,563
Tax + insurance
−$497
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$418
Net cashflow
$-486/mo
Annual
$-5,830/yr
Cap rate
4.34%
Cash-on-cash
-6.99%
DSCR
0.69
1% rule
0.67%
Cash to close
$83,440
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $298k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-486 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (23.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (33.2% below list).
It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $199k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $21k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (6.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#42 in NV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
Lyon County School District (town): math 21% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #14 of 17 in NV (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Market conditions: 249 active listings in the ZIP; 297 units permitted in Lyon County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lyon County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $35k; list at $298k implies a 751% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BS9HA96PH801QQ
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29