3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,079 sqft ·
Built 1998
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 48 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,713/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,426
Tax + insurance
−$821
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$570
Net cashflow
$-104/mo
Annual
$-1,243/yr
Cap rate
5.84%
Cash-on-cash
-1.63%
DSCR
0.93
1% rule
1.00%
Cash to close
$76,160
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $272k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (6.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (0.2% below list).
It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $254k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#75 in TX, #2,697 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, commute F.
Mansfield ISD (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #125 of 826 in TX (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Imogene Gideon El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 329 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 35% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mansfield ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 98 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $68k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.7% in Arlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BSQJ3T05WWCMQG
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29