166 Hibernia Rd

Salt Point, NY 12578

$420,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 242 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax + insurance: −$723
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $-160/mo
• Annual: $-1,923/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.64%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $117,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $392k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (16.7% below list).
• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $350k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 34/100 on livability (#1,193 in NY) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hyde Park Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #316 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $252k; list at $420k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.3% in Salt Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.