166 Hibernia Rd · Salt Point, NY 12578

$420,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 242 Days on market

Built 1963 0.51 ac lot $267/sqft · 9% below area Est $501k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.7/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCED! Best Dressed, Re Dressed Home For Success; One Floor, Fully Available Four Bedroom, Two Bath Ranch. This Is A Shining Penny. Seek And You Will Find Some Versatility From The Surrounding Quiet Atmosphere. You Got The Village Vibe? Stop! Look! This Is It. Experience Good Eating From The Agricultural Environment. Vibrant Community Has Easy Access To Festivals, Outdoor Activities, Hiking Trails, Parks, Golfing And More By The Convenience Of An Easy Commute Via The Taconic State Parkway And Other Major Highways. Agents, Please See Other Remarks For More Information.

Key facts

• 0.51 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1963

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $392k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $350k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.3% in Salt Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 34/100 on livability (#1,193 in NY) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hyde Park Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #316 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $252k; list at $420k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $350,000 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.64%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $500,719
• List price: $420,000
• Delta: -16.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
166 Hibernia Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,572 (0%)	24mo	$255,000	$162	80
103 Hibernia Heights Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,388 (-12%)	8mo	$450,000	$324	52
25 Hibernia Heights Dr	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,372 (-13%)	12mo	$475,000	$346	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $218,604
• Equity at exit: $378,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.54×
• Total profit: $651,911
• Equity at exit: $815,968

Cash invested: $117,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12578

• Home prices YoY: 15.2%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax from tax record: −$548 /mo · $6,573/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $-160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,703

Max offer price $391,692

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $78	-5% $-41	+0% $-160	+5% $-279	+10% $-398
Rent	-10% $-437	-5% $-298	+0% $-160	+5% $-22	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $51	-0.5pp $-53	base $-160	+0.5pp $-269	+1.0pp $-380

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,000
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1539 Hollow Rd Clinton Corners, NY	4.0	2.0	1946	$3,500	$1.80	14d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED! Best Dressed, Re Dressed Home For Success; One Floor, Fully Available Four Bedroom, Two Bath Ranch. This Is A Shining Penny. Seek And You Will Find Some Versatility From The Surrounding Quiet Atmosphere. You Got The Village Vibe? Stop! Look! This Is It. Experience Good Eating From The Agricultural Environment. Vibrant Community Has Easy Access To Festivals, Outdoor Activities, Hiking Trails, Parks, Golfing And More By The Convenience Of An Easy Commute Via The Taconic State Parkway And Other Major Highways. Agents, Please See Other Remarks For More Information.

2. 2026-05-09
   historical 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED! Best Dressed, Re Dressed Home For Success; One Floor, Fully Available Four Bedroom, Two Bath Ranch. This Is A Shining Penny. Seek And You Will Find Some Versatility From The Surrounding Quiet Atmosphere. You Got The Village Vibe? Stop! Look! This Is It. Experience Good Eating From The Agricultural Environment. Vibrant Community Has Easy Access To Festivals, Outdoor Activities, Hiking Trails, Parks, Golfing And More By The Convenience Of An Easy Commute Via The Taconic State Parkway And Other Major Highways. Agents, Please See Other Remarks For More Information.

3. 2026-04-19
   price $420,000 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED! Best Dressed, Re Dressed Home For Success; One Floor, Fully Available Four Bedroom, Two Bath Ranch. This Is A Shining Penny. Seek And You Will Find Some Versatility From The Surrounding Quiet Atmosphere. You Got The Village Vibe? Stop! Look! This Is It. Experience Good Eating From The Agricultural Environment. Vibrant Community Has Easy Access To Festivals, Outdoor Activities, Hiking Trails, Parks, Golfing And More By The Convenience Of An Easy Commute Via The Taconic State Parkway And Other Major Highways. Agents, Please See Other Remarks For More Information.

4. 2025-12-06
   status Active 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED! Best Dressed, Re Dressed Home For Success; One Floor, Fully Available Four Bedroom, Two Bath Ranch. This Is A Shining Penny. Seek And You Will Find Some Versatility From The Surrounding Quiet Atmosphere. You Got The Village Vibe? Stop! Look! This Is It. Experience Good Eating From The Agricultural Environment. Vibrant Community Has Easy Access To Festivals, Outdoor Activities, Hiking Trails, Parks, Golfing And More By The Convenience Of An Easy Commute Via The Taconic State Parkway And Other Major Highways. Agents, Please See Other Remarks For More Information.

5. 2025-12-06
   status Pending 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED! Best Dressed, Re Dressed Home For Success; One Floor, Fully Available Four Bedroom, Two Bath Ranch. This Is A Shining Penny. Seek And You Will Find Some Versatility From The Surrounding Quiet Atmosphere. You Got The Village Vibe? Stop! Look! This Is It. Experience Good Eating From The Agricultural Environment. Vibrant Community Has Easy Access To Festivals, Outdoor Activities, Hiking Trails, Parks, Golfing And More By The Convenience Of An Easy Commute Via The Taconic State Parkway And Other Major Highways. Agents, Please See Other Remarks For More Information.

6. 2025-10-23
   price $450,000 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED! Best Dressed, Re Dressed Home For Success; One Floor, Fully Available Four Bedroom, Two Bath Ranch. This Is A Shining Penny. Seek And You Will Find Some Versatility From The Surrounding Quiet Atmosphere. You Got The Village Vibe? Stop! Look! This Is It. Experience Good Eating From The Agricultural Environment. Vibrant Community Has Easy Access To Festivals, Outdoor Activities, Hiking Trails, Parks, Golfing And More By The Convenience Of An Easy Commute Via The Taconic State Parkway And Other Major Highways. Agents, Please See Other Remarks For More Information.

7. 2025-09-09
   listed $475,000 Active 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED! Best Dressed, Re Dressed Home For Success; One Floor, Fully Available Four Bedroom, Two Bath Ranch. This Is A Shining Penny. Seek And You Will Find Some Versatility From The Surrounding Quiet Atmosphere. You Got The Village Vibe? Stop! Look! This Is It. Experience Good Eating From The Agricultural Environment. Vibrant Community Has Easy Access To Festivals, Outdoor Activities, Hiking Trails, Parks, Golfing And More By The Convenience Of An Easy Commute Via The Taconic State Parkway And Other Major Highways. Agents, Please See Other Remarks For More Information.

8. 2025-09-08
   historical
9. 2025-08-20
   price $490,000
10. 2025-06-18
    listed $499,900 Active
11. 2024-07-03
    soldstatus $252,000
12. 2024-06-28
    soldstatus $255,000 Closed
13. 2024-04-17
    status Pending
14. 2024-03-13
    listed $275,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,573 · $548/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,835 · $570/mo
• Expected delta: +$263/yr (+$22/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,527
• − Property taxes: −$6,573
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$9,137
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,193
• After-tax cash flow: $270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hyde Park Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615180
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $68,932
• Composite: 46.59/100
• National rank: #2421
• State rank: #316 of 590 in NY

Livability — Salt Point

• Score: 34/100
• State rank: #1193
• US rank: #27748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,306
• Population (ZIP): 2,306

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.36%
• Current HPI: 245.2361
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+52.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-09 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $420,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-06 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-09 Listed $475,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-08 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $490,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-18 Listed $499,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $252,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-28 Sold (MLS) $255,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-17 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-13 Listed $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,573 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.