10841 Cox Rd

Wise, VA 24293

$159,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · Built 1960 · Manufactured · Active · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,237/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $35/mo
• Annual: $419/yr
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.94%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($419/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (22.2% below list).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#99 in VA, #3,153 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wise County Public School District (town): math 74% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #11 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: St. Paul Elementary (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #9 of 1,108 statewide, top 1%, 469 students, 81% FRL); Union Middle (math 58% / reading 70%, grade B+, #127 of 342 statewide, top 37%, 583 students, 89% FRL); Central High (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A, #16 of 319 statewide, top 5%, 674 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 55% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wise County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $159k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.1% in Wise — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.