10841 Cox Rd · Coeburn, VA 24293

$159,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · Manufactured public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1960 0.68 ac lot $107/sqft · 40% below area Est $265k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity, charm, and space all come together in this inviting 4-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on a large lot bursting with potential! Move-in ready and full of character, this property offers the perfect chance to settle in now while adding your own cosmetic touches over time to truly make it shine. With just a little updating, this home could become an absolute showstopper! Inside, you'll find a spacious layout with four comfortable bedrooms and two full baths, giving everyone room to spread out and enjoy. Outside is where this property really stands apart--enjoy a generous yard with mature apple trees, established shiitake mushroom plants, and plenty of space for gardening, entertaining, or simply relaxing in your own private retreat. The 2-car garage adds convenience and storage, while the brand-new roof offers peace of mind for years to come. Whether you're searching for your forever home, an investment opportunity, or a property with room to grow, this one checks all the boxes. Homes with this much potential, usable land, and natural charm don't come around often--schedule your showing today and imagine the possibilities! Buyer and buyers agent to verify all information in this listing. Subject to Errors and Omissions

Key facts

• 0.68 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 64 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($419/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#383 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wise County Public School District (town): math 74% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #11 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $159k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,749 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.94%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,844
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -39.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-23,616
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-18,013
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24293

• Home prices YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,237 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $511/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,193

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $80	+0% $35	+5% $-10	+10% $-55
Rent	-10% $-63	-5% $-14	+0% $35	+5% $84	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $75	base $35	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $159,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $169,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 43 DOM
18. 2026-04-17
    listed $169,000 Active 1248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1248 chars)

    Opportunity, charm, and space all come together in this inviting 4-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on a large lot bursting with potential! Move-in ready and full of character, this property offers the perfect chance to settle in now while adding your own cosmetic touches over time to truly make it shine. With just a little updating, this home could become an absolute showstopper! Inside, you'll find a spacious layout with four comfortable bedrooms and two full baths, giving everyone room to spread out and enjoy. Outside is where this property really stands apart--enjoy a generous yard with mature apple trees, established shiitake mushroom plants, and plenty of space for gardening, entertaining, or simply relaxing in your own private retreat. The 2-car garage adds convenience and storage, while the brand-new roof offers peace of mind for years to come. Whether you're searching for your forever home, an investment opportunity, or a property with room to grow, this one checks all the boxes. Homes with this much potential, usable land, and natural charm don't come around often--schedule your showing today and imagine the possibilities! Buyer and buyers agent to verify all information in this listing. Subject to Errors and Omissions

19. 2023-02-03
    soldstatus $91,300 21-char remark

    Show marketing remark (21 chars)

    Home for sale in Wise

20. 2023-02-03
    listed $95,000 21-char remark

    Show marketing remark (21 chars)

    Home for sale in Wise

21. 2023-02-03
    soldstatus $91,300

    Show marketing remark (21 chars)

    Home for sale in Wise

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $511 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,304 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$793/yr (+$66/mo · 155.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 4 d/yr ≥93°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$511
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,188
• − Management: −$1,188
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$2,364
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$567
• After-tax cash flow: $987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wise County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104080
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $35,624
• Composite: 63.37/100
• National rank: #625
• State rank: #11 of 131 in VA

Livability — Coeburn

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #383
• US rank: #15422

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,622

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,714 people
• By 2030: 33,742 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 29,870 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 26,233 · -26.5%
• By 2075: 18,296 · -48.8%
• By 2100: 12,147 · -66.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.1% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.7pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.49%
• Current HPI: 153.7377
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+85.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $169,000 TVRMLS
• 2023-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $91,300 Public Records
• 2023-02-03 Listed $95,000 TVRMLS
• 2023-02-03 Sold (MLS) $91,300 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $511 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.