311 Vogel Ave

Dowell, IL 62927

$7,500B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Built 1924 · SingleFamily · Active · 124 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $825/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$264
• Tax + insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $304/mo
• Annual: $3,649/yr
• Cap rate: 13.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.92%
• DSCR: 2.15
• 1% rule: 1.64%
• Cash to close: $14,079

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $8k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($825 rent vs $8k).
• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($7k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $7k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($347 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,313 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, schools F, crime F.
• Elverado CUSD 196 (rural): math 25% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #418 of 919 in IL (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 10.1% of price; built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.