311 Vogel Ave · Dowell, IL 62927

$7,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1924 4,791 sqft lot ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

AUCTION LISTING! 2 bedroom 1 bath home on a corner lot! All bids should be submitted on the XOME website, void where prohibited. Please submit any pre-auction offer received through the property details page on the Xome website. Any post-auction offers will need to be submitted directly to the listing agent. Response within 3 business days. All properties are subject to a 5% buyer s premium pursuant to the Auction Participation Agreement and Terms & Conditions minimums will apply. Please contact listing agent for details on this property.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1924

🔨 Auction listing. The $7,500 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $50,282 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $8k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($825 rent vs $8k).
• Recommended offer: $7k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,313 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, schools F, crime F.
• Elverado CUSD 196 (rural): math 25% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #418 of 919 in IL (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($347 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($7k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 10.1% of price; built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $6,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.92%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $50,282
• List price: $7,500
• Delta: -85.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $25,436
• Equity at exit: $22,609

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $63,434
• Equity at exit: $34,843

Cash invested: $14,079 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62927

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $825 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$264
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$63 /mo · $754/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $440

Max offer price $50,282

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $339	-5% $321	+0% $304	+5% $287	+10% $269
Rent	-10% $239	-5% $271	+0% $304	+5% $337	+10% $369
Rate	-1.0pp $329	-0.5pp $317	base $304	+0.5pp $291	+1.0pp $278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,570
• Closing costs: $1,508
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $7,500 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $7,500 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $7,500 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $7,500 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $7,500 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $7,500 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $7,500 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $7,500 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $7,500 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $7,500 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $7,500 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $7,500 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $7,500 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $9,900 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $9,900 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $9,900 Active 103 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $9,900 Active 102 DOM
18. 2026-03-27
    price $9,900 549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    AUCTION LISTING! 2 bedroom 1 bath home on a corner lot! All bids should be submitted on the XOME website, void where prohibited. Please submit any pre-auction offer received through the property details page on the Xome website. Any post-auction offers will need to be submitted directly to the listing agent. Response within 3 business days. All properties are subject to a 5% buyer s premium pursuant to the Auction Participation Agreement and Terms & Conditions minimums will apply. Please contact listing agent for details on this property.

19. 2026-02-16
    listed $12,500 Active 549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    AUCTION LISTING! 2 bedroom 1 bath home on a corner lot! All bids should be submitted on the XOME website, void where prohibited. Please submit any pre-auction offer received through the property details page on the Xome website. Any post-auction offers will need to be submitted directly to the listing agent. Response within 3 business days. All properties are subject to a 5% buyer s premium pursuant to the Auction Participation Agreement and Terms & Conditions minimums will apply. Please contact listing agent for details on this property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,817
• − Property taxes: −$754
• − Insurance: −$251
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$792
• − Management: −$792
• − Depreciation: −$1,463
• Taxable income: $3,029
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$727
• After-tax cash flow: $2,922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elverado CUSD 196
• NCES district ID: 1713860
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $42,241
• Composite: 32.2/100
• National rank: #10962
• State rank: #418 of 919 in IL

Livability — Dowell

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1313
• US rank: #25031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dowell, IL
• Population (ZIP): 313

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,093 people
• By 2030: 59,628 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 59,495 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 58,811 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 57,683 · -2.4%
• By 2100: 55,337 · -6.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 47.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.8pp · 2024: 3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.5 2020: D+1.3 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+10.3 2008: D+21.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-20.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $9,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Listed $12,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $598 · +18.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.