42149 Crestview Cir

Northville, MI 48168

$825,000D-

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,876 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,738/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,326
• Tax + insurance: −$1,070
• HOA: −$18
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,415
• Net cashflow: $-91/mo
• Annual: $-1,092/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $231,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $825k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $809k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $674k (18.3% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $674k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#13 in MI, #205 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Northville Public Schools (suburban): math 68% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #4 of 540 in MI (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Winchester Elementary School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #74 of 1,397 statewide, top 7%, 476 students, 6% FRL); Meads Mill Middle School (math 65% / reading 74%, grade A, #28 of 493 statewide, top 6%, 671 students, 9% FRL); Northville High School (math 68% / reading 86%, grade A-, #11 of 713 statewide, top 2%, 2,499 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask is 110% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $411k; list at $825k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 1.8% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.