ASHDOWN Plan

Ward, AR 72176

$188,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 353 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,505/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$897
• Tax + insurance: −$285
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $7/mo
• Annual: $83/yr
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.17%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $47,905

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($83/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (19.9% below list).
• It's been on market 353 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $151k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#66 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ward Central Elementary (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #93 of 454 statewide, top 23%, 494 students, 62% FRL); Cabot Middle School North (math 52% / reading 41%, grade D+, #49 of 201 statewide, top 26%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Cabot High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #64 of 292 statewide, top 26%, 2,198 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.9% in Ward — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 353 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.