ASHDOWN Plan · Ward, AR 72176

$188,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily · 353 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Moonlight Meadows in Ward, Arkansas, by D. R. Horton is an inviting new community offering a variety of modern single-family homes designed with convenience and comfort in mind. With spacious floor plans, stylish finishes, and a family-friendly environment, Moonlight Meadows is the perfect place to call home. Residents enjoy the peaceful rural setting while being within reach of essential services, shopping, and entertainment options. Whether you're starting a family, relocating for work, or simply seeking a serene neighborhood, Moonlight Meadows in Ward is an ideal spot to plant your roots. New homes are now selling in this community!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 353 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $188,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (ASHDOWN)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,156 (new construction)
• Exterior features: Model home coming soon in Ward, AR

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (ASHDOWN)

🏗️ New construction. The $188,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $171,088.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($83/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.9% in Ward — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#66 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ward Central Elementary (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #93 of 454 statewide, top 23%, 494 students, 62% FRL); Cabot Middle School North (math 52% / reading 41%, grade D+, #49 of 201 statewide, top 26%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Cabot High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #64 of 292 statewide, top 26%, 2,198 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 353 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,542 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 353 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.17%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $171,088
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
440 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	5mo	$185,000	$145	76
3 Sunrise Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,198 (+4%)	5mo	$189,900	$159	75
25 Windwood Cv Cv	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,147 (-1%)	5mo	$169,999	$148	75
5 Moonlight Cv	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,183 (+2%)	13mo	$175,000	$148	71
23 Moonridge Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,242 (+7%)	1mo	$180,000	$145	69
710 Moon Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,321 (+14%)	4mo	$224,500	$170	65
720 Moon Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,321 (+14%)	5mo	$224,500	$170	64
43 Gold Meadows Loop	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,115 (-4%)	21mo	$149,500	$134	59
15 Mill Creek Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,284 (+11%)	9mo	$199,900	$156	58
1605 Moon Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-13%)	7mo	$145,000	$144	57
1615 Moon	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,036 (-10%)	11mo	$117,000	$113	55
1250 Peyton St	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,062 (-8%)	13mo	$179,900	$169	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $43,381
• Equity at exit: $100,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $129,275
• Equity at exit: $176,868

Cash invested: $47,905 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72176

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,505 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$897
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$214 /mo · $2,566/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,497

Max offer price $171,088

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $66	+0% $7	+5% $-52	+10% $-111
Rent	-10% $-112	-5% $-53	+0% $7	+5% $66	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $50	base $7	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,772
• Closing costs: $5,133
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Gold Meadows Loop Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,300	$0.88	25d	1	0.36mi
21 Windsor Park Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,500	$1.04	25d	1	0.52mi
65 Birchwood Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,650	$1.27	23d	1	0.74mi
21 Weatherwood Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,300	$1.12	25d	1	0.85mi
29 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	21d	1	0.85mi
23 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,450	$1.20	25d	1	0.86mi
21 Kasidyann Ct Ward, AR	4.0	2.0	1415	$1,795	$1.27	25d	1	1.34mi
561 Brewer St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	46d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $188,000 Active 353 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $188,000 Active 350 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $188,000 Active 349 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $188,000 Active 348 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $188,000 Active 347 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $188,000 Active 345 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $188,000 Active 342 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $188,000 Active 341 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $188,000 Active 340 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $188,000 Active 339 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $188,000 Active 336 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $188,000 Active 335 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $188,000 Active 334 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $188,000 Active 333 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $188,000 Active 332 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $188,000 Active 331 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,584
• − Property taxes: −$2,566
• − Insurance: −$855
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,445
• − Management: −$1,445
• − Depreciation: −$4,977
• Taxable loss: −$2,808
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$674
• After-tax cash flow: $757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabot School District
• NCES district ID: 0503750
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,993
• Composite: 39.66/100
• National rank: #3912
• State rank: #29 of 238 in AR

Livability — Ward

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #8464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lonoke County · 46,130 people
• City population: 8,678
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 8,678
• Household income: $68,840
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.35%
• Current HPI: 208.9387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B