618 Bird Bay Dr S #202

Venice, FL 34285

$145,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 940 sqft · Built 1976 · Condo · Pending · 522 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,927/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$680
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-155/mo
• Annual: $-1,862/yr
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.59%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (18.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• It's been on market 522 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#129 in FL, #1,925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Garden Elementary School (math 71% / reading 69%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 513 students, 52% FRL); Venice Middle School (math 71% / reading 58%, grade A-, #100 of 571 statewide, top 18%, 761 students, 37% FRL); Venice Senior High School (math 67% / reading 61%, grade B-, #86 of 667 statewide, top 13%, 2,584 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 468 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 14 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask is 9567% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $145k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 522 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?