618 Bird Bay Dr S #202 · Venice, FL 34285

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 940 sqft · Condo public records · 522 Days on market

Built 1976 $680/mo HOA · 35% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Second floor condo at Bird Bay in the Sandpiper Building, west view of the lawn and garden, furnished, 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, elevator, coin laundry, very close to a major shopping center, clubhouse, pool, tennis and all the amenities of Bird Bayabout 2 miles to Venice Beach, executive golf course nearby, centrally located in the Venice area, convenient to highways, shopping, restaurants, and all the amenities of the Venice area, $316 monthly fee, no age restrictions, small pet okay, Bird Bay offers several swimming pools, tennis courts, active clubhouse and social activities, comfortable living at an affordable price!

Key facts

• Large tile
• Historical downtown
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• COASTAL FLARE
• TURNKEY
• LARGE TILE
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• LANAI OVERLOOKS GROUNDS
• HISTORICAL DOWNTOWN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Association contact required for approval
• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $680; Total annual fees: $8,160; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee: $680 (includes cable TV, pool, maintenance - structure and grounds, pest control, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water); Association: Dellcor Mgmt (approval required); Community amenities: Clubhouse, Fitness Center, Pool, Racquetball, Tennis Courts; Pets allowed (max 35 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt road access
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Water available; Water source: None
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; 3 total stories in building; Unit on 2nd floor; Faces southwest; Levels: One
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Membrane roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Balcony; Outdoor lighting; Private mailbox; Sliding doors; Tennis courts

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Block foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Building elevator
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (18.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#129 in FL, #1,925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Garden Elementary School (math 71% / reading 69%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 513 students, 52% FRL); Venice Middle School (math 71% / reading 58%, grade A-, #100 of 571 statewide, top 18%, 761 students, 37% FRL); Venice Senior High School (math 67% / reading 61%, grade B-, #86 of 667 statewide, top 13%, 2,584 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 468 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 522 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask is 9567% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $145k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,586 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 522 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.59%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-22,753
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $15,609
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34285

• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,927 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,118/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$680
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,123

Max offer price $117,586

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-73	-5% $-114	+0% $-155	+5% $-196	+10% $-237
Rent	-10% $-307	-5% $-231	+0% $-155	+5% $-79	+10% $-3
Rate	-1.0pp $-82	-0.5pp $-118	base $-155	+0.5pp $-193	+1.0pp $-231

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $680 · $8,160/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   price $145,000
3. 2026-02-05
   price $149,000
4. 2026-01-11
   price $159,000
5. 2025-09-11
   historical $1,500
6. 2025-07-16
   listed $1,500
7. 2025-07-15
   status Active
8. 2025-07-02
   status Active
9. 2025-05-09
   historical $1,400
10. 2025-05-03
    listed $1,400
11. 2025-05-03
    price $169,000
12. 2025-05-03
    status Active
13. 2025-04-22
    historical $1,400
14. 2025-04-21
    status Pending
15. 2025-04-08
    listed $1,400
16. 2025-03-10
    price $199,000
17. 2024-12-24
    historical $2,750
18. 2024-12-04
    price $2,750
19. 2024-11-23
    price $219,000
20. 2024-11-07
    listed $2,950
21. 2024-10-02
    listed $229,000 Active
22. 2024-07-03
    historical $1,400
23. 2024-06-05
    listed $1,400
24. 2024-05-30
    historical $1,400
25. 2024-05-01
    listed $1,400
26. 2024-05-01
    historical
27. 2024-04-07
    status Active
28. 2024-03-31
    historical
29. 2024-01-30
    price $237,000
30. 2023-12-12
    price $239,900
31. 2023-09-18
    status Active
32. 2023-09-05
    status Pending
33. 2023-08-26
    price $245,000
34. 2023-06-26
    price $249,900
35. 2023-06-19
    price $252,500
36. 2023-05-16
    price $254,500
37. 2023-04-19
    price $259,900
38. 2023-04-04
    price $262,500
39. 2023-04-03
    listed $259,900 Active
40. 2009-10-02
    soldstatus $80,000
41. 2009-09-30
    soldstatus $80,000 624-char remark

    Show marketing remark (624 chars)

    Second floor condo at Bird Bay in the Sandpiper Building, west view of the lawn and garden, furnished, 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, elevator, coin laundry, very close to a major shopping center, clubhouse, pool, tennis and all the amenities of Bird Bayabout 2 miles to Venice Beach, executive golf course nearby, centrally located in the Venice area, convenient to highways, shopping, restaurants, and all the amenities of the Venice area, $316 monthly fee, no age restrictions, small pet okay, Bird Bay offers several swimming pools, tennis courts, active clubhouse and social activities, comfortable living at an affordable price!

42. 2008-11-22
    listed $84,000 624-char remark

    Show marketing remark (624 chars)

    Second floor condo at Bird Bay in the Sandpiper Building, west view of the lawn and garden, furnished, 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, elevator, coin laundry, very close to a major shopping center, clubhouse, pool, tennis and all the amenities of Bird Bayabout 2 miles to Venice Beach, executive golf course nearby, centrally located in the Venice area, convenient to highways, shopping, restaurants, and all the amenities of the Venice area, $316 monthly fee, no age restrictions, small pet okay, Bird Bay offers several swimming pools, tennis courts, active clubhouse and social activities, comfortable living at an affordable price!

43. 2002-04-04
    soldstatus $70,000
44. 1999-05-28
    soldstatus $65,000
45. 1992-12-04
    soldstatus $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,118 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,118 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,121
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,118
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,850
• − Management: −$1,850
• − HOA: −$8,160
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$3,922
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$941
• After-tax cash flow: $-921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Venice

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #1925

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venice, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,677
• Household income: $68,301
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 747.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 5% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -329.42%
• Current HPI: 264.6389
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.78%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+126.6% since first listed

45 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-11 Rental Removed $1,500 STELLARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listed for Rent $1,500 STELLARMLS
• 2025-07-15 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-09 Rental Removed $1,400 STELLARMLS
• 2025-05-03 Listed for Rent $1,400 STELLARMLS
• 2025-05-03 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-03 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-22 Rental Removed $1,400 STELLARMLS
• 2025-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-08 Listed for Rent $1,400 STELLARMLS
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-24 Rental Removed $2,750 STELLARMLS
• 2024-12-04 Price Changed $2,750 STELLARMLS
• 2024-11-23 Price Changed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-07 Listed for Rent $2,950 STELLARMLS
• 2024-10-02 Listed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-03 Rental Removed $1,400 STELLARMLS
• 2024-06-05 Listed for Rent $1,400 STELLARMLS
• 2024-05-30 Rental Removed $1,400 STELLARMLS
• 2024-05-01 Listed for Rent $1,400 STELLARMLS
• 2024-05-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-30 Price Changed $237,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-12 Price Changed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-26 Price Changed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-26 Price Changed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-19 Price Changed $252,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-16 Price Changed $254,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-19 Price Changed $259,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-04 Price Changed $262,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-03 Listed $259,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2009-09-30 Sold (MLS) $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-22 Listed $84,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1999-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1992-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,118 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.