4814 Carpenter Rd

Grant, MI 48763

$109,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,215/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax + insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $309/mo
• Annual: $3,710/yr
• Cap rate: 9.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.16%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $30,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $109k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#291 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Tawas Area Schools (rural): math 34% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #190 of 540 in MI (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Iosco County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Iosco County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.4% in Grant — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Foundation — Cracks in the foundation suggest structural issues.
• Major: Exterior siding — Signs of wear and tear on the siding.
• Major: Windows — Old and possibly leaky windows.
• Major: HVAC unit — Appears old and may need replacement.
• Major: Kitchen cabinets — Old and worn, may need replacement or renovation.
• Major: Bathroom renovation — Plastic covering suggests ongoing or needed renovation.