4814 Carpenter Rd · Grant, MI 48763

$109,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1960 Poor condition 9.26 ac lot $86/sqft · 30% below area Est $160k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Handyman's special in the country. This 3 bedroom home on 9+ acres has lots of potential. The basement has been collapsing inwards and has been braced temporarily and needs to be addressed. There have been leaks in the front porch. The home has a large garage and 1 1/2 baths. A project for sure but a great location.

Key facts

• 9 acres
• Great location
• 9.26 acre lot

Tags

• 9 ACRES
• GREAT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $109k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.0% in Grant — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#291 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Tawas Area Schools (rural): math 34% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #190 of 540 in MI (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Iosco County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Iosco County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $102,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.16%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,837
• List price: $109,000
• Delta: -31.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4901 M-55	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,260 (-0%)	2mo	$200,000	$159	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $1,985
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $26,904
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48763

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,215 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $408/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $824

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $371	-5% $340	+0% $309	+5% $278	+10% $247
Rent	-10% $213	-5% $261	+0% $309	+5% $357	+10% $405
Rate	-1.0pp $364	-0.5pp $337	base $309	+0.5pp $281	+1.0pp $252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $109,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $109,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    listed $109,000 Active 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Handyman's special in the country. This 3 bedroom home on 9+ acres has lots of potential. The basement has been collapsing inwards and has been braced temporarily and needs to be addressed. There have been leaks in the front porch. The home has a large garage and 1 1/2 baths. A project for sure but a great location.

18. 2026-04-14
    listed $109,000 Active 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Handyman's special in the country. This 3 bedroom home on 9+ acres has lots of potential. The basement has been collapsing inwards and has been braced temporarily and needs to be addressed. There have been leaks in the front porch. The home has a large garage and 1 1/2 baths. A project for sure but a great location.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $408 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,043 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$635/yr (+$53/mo · 155.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$408
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,167
• − Management: −$1,167
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $2,022
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$485
• After-tax cash flow: $3,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Foundation repair, exterior siding replacement, and window and HVAC replacements are critical to stabilize the structure and improve energy efficiency. Interior renovations, including kitchen and bathroom updates, would significantly enhance the home's appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Foundation — Cracks in the foundation suggest structural issues.
• Major Exterior siding — Signs of wear and tear on the siding.
• Major Windows — Old and possibly leaky windows.
• Major HVAC unit — Appears old and may need replacement.
• Major Kitchen cabinets — Old and worn, may need replacement or renovation.
• Major Bathroom renovation — Plastic covering suggests ongoing or needed renovation.
• Major Flooring — Worn and uneven, may need replacement or renovation.
• Major Interior walls — Paint peeling and signs of wear, may need repainting or renovation.
• Major Landscaping — Sparse and unkempt, may need landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Foundation repair — Stabilizing the foundation would improve both resale and rental value.
• Both Exterior siding replacement — New siding would enhance curb appeal and increase value.
• Both Window replacement — New windows would improve energy efficiency and increase value.
• Both HVAC replacement — A new HVAC unit would improve comfort and increase value.
• Both Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen would increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Bathroom renovation — A modern bathroom would increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Flooring replacement — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and increase value.
• Both Interior wall repainting — Fresh paint would improve the home's appearance and increase value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements would enhance curb appeal and increase value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Foundation · Cracks in the foundation suggest structural issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Signs of wear and tear on the siding.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · Old and possibly leaky windows.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC unit · Appears old and may need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen cabinets · Old and worn, may need replacement or renovation.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom renovation · Plastic covering suggests ongoing or needed renovation.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn and uneven, may need replacement or renovation.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Paint peeling and signs of wear, may need repainting or renovation.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Sparse and unkempt, may need landscaping improvements.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 9 items		$135,000–450,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Foundation repair — Stabilizing the foundation would improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Exterior siding replacement — New siding would enhance curb appeal and increase value. ↑
• Both Window replacement — New windows would improve energy efficiency and increase value. ↑
• Both HVAC replacement — A new HVAC unit would improve comfort and increase value. ↑
• Both Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen would increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Bathroom renovation — A modern bathroom would increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and increase value. ↑
• Both Interior wall repainting — Fresh paint would improve the home's appearance and increase value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements would enhance curb appeal and increase value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tawas Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2633510
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,651
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4891
• State rank: #190 of 540 in MI

Livability — Grant

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #7290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,837

Population outlook (Iosco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,366 people
• By 2030: 23,622 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 22,021 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 20,877 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 18,792 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 15,465 · -36.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 6% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Iosco

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.6) · D 34.0% · R 64.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.7pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -30.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.6 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+30.0 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.19%
• Current HPI: 250.8991
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $109,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $109,000 REALCOMP