2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,200 sqft ·
Built 1972
· Manufactured
· Active
· 159 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,390/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$157
Tax + insurance
−$50
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$292
Net cashflow
$892/mo
Annual
$10,702/yr
Cap rate
42.09%
Cash-on-cash
127.83%
DSCR
6.69
1% rule
4.65%
Cash to close
$8,372
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $892 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: John F. Long (math 7% / reading 19%, grade F, #929 of 1,109 statewide, top 84%, 657 students, 77% FRL); Marc T. Atkinson Middle School & Gifted Academy (math 11% / reading 19%, grade F, #156 of 218 statewide, top 72%, 184 students, 76% FRL); Maryvale High School (math 8% / reading 14%, grade F, #292 of 381 statewide, top 77%, 2,795 students, 88% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 42.1% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BW9CMV5YG64N0J
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29