5201 W Camelback Rd #243 · Phoenix, AZ 85031

$29,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 159 Days on market

Built 1972 ↓ 40% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This move-in ready 2-bed, 2-bath home has an Arizona Room, Bonus Room plus a workshop! Located in popular and gated Longhaven Estates which offers safety, value, and privacy on a rare corner lot with lots of space and parking. Updated in 2023 with stylish wood-look floors, newer AC/heat pump, hot water heater, insulated roof, and security doors for peace of mind. Enjoy the covered carport and bonus Arizona room -- perfect for relaxing, hobbies, or hosting friends. Close to public transportation and Sky Harbor, offers community pools and clubhouse, this friendly 55+ neighborhood makes active living affordable with a low monthly space lease. Sunny Arizona retirement living done right!

Key facts

• Premium corner lot
• Covered carport
• Arizona room

Tags

• PREMIUM CORNER LOT
• NO ADJACENT NEIGHBORS
• COVERED CARPORT
• ARIZONA ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Off Grand Ave directions
• HOA & community: Land lease; Land lease fee $900 monthly; Association covers sewer, water, trash, street maintenance and grounds maintenance; Community amenities include: pool, heated community spa, pickleball courts, tennis courts, fitness center, biking/walking paths, community media room, near bus stop

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Vertical siding; Wood frame construction; Metal roof; Building area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Private maintained road; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Programmable thermostat; Has heating
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; No interior steps; Pantry; Primary bedroom with 3/4 bath
• Laundry & utility: Community laundry available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $892 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 42.1% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 42.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 127.83%
• DSCR: 6.69
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.22×
• Total profit: $52,104
• Equity at exit: $4,458

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.23×
• Total profit: $119,117
• Equity at exit: $2,585

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85031

• Home prices YoY: -23.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,390 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $448/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $892

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $913	-5% $902	+0% $892	+5% $882	+10% $871
Rent	-10% $782	-5% $837	+0% $892	+5% $947	+10% $1,002
Rate	-1.0pp $907	-0.5pp $899	base $892	+0.5pp $884	+1.0pp $876

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4429 N 53rd Ln Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	900	$1,150	$1.28	0d	1	0.47mi
4429 N 53rd Ln Unit 4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	0d	1	0.47mi
4424 N 53rd Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	0d	1	0.51mi
4418 N 53rd Ln Apt 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,000	$0.99	0d	1	0.52mi
5190 N 55th Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	708	$1,560	$2.20	0d	15	0.53mi
5039 N 57th Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$2,403	$3.00	0d	14	0.60mi
4337 N 53rd Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	936	$1,450	$1.55	16d	1	0.61mi
4337 N 53rd Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	936	$1,468	$1.57	0d	1	0.61mi
4337 N 53rd Ln Unit B1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	936	$1,310	$1.40	0d	1	0.62mi
5631 W Colter St Glendale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,324	$1.50	0d	5	0.65mi
5601 W Missouri Ave Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,500	$1.48	0d	1	0.70mi
5045 N 58th Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	821	$1,399	$1.70	0d	1	0.73mi
4436 N 47th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,510	$1.17	19d	1	0.75mi
5421 W Indian School Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1014	$1,367	$1.35	0d	24	1.01mi
3810 N Maryvale Pkwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,100	$1.37	0d	2	1.09mi
3810 N Maryvale Pkwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,100	$1.37	2d	2	1.09mi
5755 N 59th Ave Glendale, AZ	2.0	2.0	878	$1,393	$1.59	0d	1	1.15mi
5755 N 59th Ave Glendale, AZ	2.0	2.0	878	$1,593	$1.81	25d	1	1.15mi
6024 W Oregon Ave Unit C Glendale, AZ	2.0	1.5	950	$1,249	$1.31	0d	1	1.23mi
6012 W Oregon Ave Glendale, AZ	2.0	1.5	950	$1,249	$1.31	0d	1	1.24mi
4056 W Mesquite Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1005	$1,500	$1.49	2d	1	1.38mi
5750 N 59th Ave Unit 2 Glendale, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,242	$1.38	0d	1	1.39mi
5710 N 43rd Dr Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.5	1296	$1,900	$1.47	0d	1	1.39mi
5740 N 59th Ave Unit 2 Glendale, AZ	2.0	2.0	926	$1,320	$1.43	0d	1	1.40mi
4132 W Colter St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,795	$1.35	0d	1	1.41mi
5819 N 59th Dr Glendale, AZ	3.0	3.0	1500	$2,100	$1.40	4d	1	1.42mi
4029 W Mesquite Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	924	$1,195	$1.29	23d	1	1.43mi
6251 N 48th Ave Apt 4 Glendale, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$925	$1.09	5d	1	1.43mi
5040 N 40th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	924	$1,195	$1.29	0d	1	1.46mi
5030 N 40th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	924	$1,100	$1.19	0d	1	1.46mi
4009 W Palomino Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$1,456	$1.58	0d	1	1.47mi
4404 W Bethany Home Rd Glendale, AZ	2.0	1.0	780	$1,370	$1.76	0d	3	1.48mi
5041 N 40th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	1005	$1,195	$1.19	0d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-05
   price $29,900
2. 2026-01-20
   price $39,900
3. 2025-12-19
   listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 4 d/yr ≥112°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$448
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $10,873
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,610
• After-tax cash flow: $8,093/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix Union High School District (4286)
• NCES district ID: 0406330
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $39,055
• Composite: 10.63/100
• National rank: #9773
• State rank: #224 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,191
• Household income: $70,412
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 822.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 79% Two or more races 19% White 13% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 74%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 60%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.76%
• Current HPI: 456.0053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.09%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-40.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $29,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $39,900 ARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $49,900 ARMLS