27112 SR 30

Spencer, TN 37367

$215,000A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1992 · Manufactured · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,497/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $720/mo
• Annual: $8,641/yr
• Cap rate: 10.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.35%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $720 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $209k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#99 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Van Buren County (rural): math 28% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #96 of 139 in TN (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Spencer Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 394 students, 0% FRL); Van Buren Co High School (math 25% / reading 18%, grade F, #172 of 332 statewide, top 52%, 400 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Van Buren County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $215k implies a 244% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.5% in Spencer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,497/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.