629 Willow St

Upton, WY 82730

$154,900D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,071 sqft · Built 1917 · SingleFamily · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $960/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax + insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $-172/mo
• Annual: $-2,059/yr
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.75%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $43,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-172 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (38.0% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#58 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Weston County School District #7 (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #44 of 48 in WY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP.
• Weston County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.