629 Willow St · Upton, WY 82730

$154,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,071 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1917 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Key facts

• Move in ready
• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 1917

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• ROOM TO BUILD A GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence; 2 stories
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.34 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating present
• Interior features: Washer and dryer included; Refrigerator included; Total of 8 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-172 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (38.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#58 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Weston County School District #7 (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #44 of 48 in WY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Weston County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,977 (38.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.75%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,060
• Equity at exit: $66,886

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $36,529
• Equity at exit: $100,980

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 82730

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $960 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $636/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $-172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,177

Max offer price $124,585

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   listed $154,900 Active 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $636 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $945 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$309/yr (+$26/mo · 48.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$636
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$921
• − Management: −$921
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$4,919
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,180
• After-tax cash flow: $-879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weston County School District #7
• NCES district ID: 5606090
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,569
• Composite: 39.41/100
• National rank: #8133
• State rank: #44 of 48 in WY

Livability — Upton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #10106

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upton, WY
• Population (ZIP): 1,346

Population outlook (Weston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,266 people
• By 2030: 7,244 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 7,060 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 6,822 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 6,485 · -10.7%
• By 2100: 5,512 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Iranian 2% Dutch 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Weston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.0) · D 10.8% · R 87.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -57.8pp · 2024: -77.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.0 2020: R+77.6 2016: R+78.1 2012: R+72.2 2008: R+57.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.68%
• Current HPI: 146.306
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Relisted — NEWRA
• 2026-04-17 Listed $154,900 NEWRA

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $636 · -22.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.