3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,056 sqft ·
Built 1954
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 14 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,487/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,002
Tax + insurance
−$240
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$312
Net cashflow
$-67/mo
Annual
$-807/yr
Cap rate
5.87%
Cash-on-cash
-1.51%
DSCR
0.93
1% rule
0.78%
Cash to close
$53,480
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $191k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-807/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (6.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (22.1% below list).
Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $149k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#61 in OH, #922 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
Kettering City School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #277 of 656 in OH (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.4% in Kettering — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BWQWS9FVCJXZ14
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29