1157 Michigan Ave

Buffalo, NY 14209

$36,000C-

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,734 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,029/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$189
• Tax + insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $2,159/mo
• Annual: $25,912/yr
• Cap rate: 78.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 257.06%
• DSCR: 12.44
• 1% rule: 8.41%
• Cash to close: $10,080

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $36k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $36k).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $919 of equity ($249 loan paydown + $670 appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.5%/yr); 56 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $119k (77%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 78.3% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,029/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 959% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.