1157 Michigan Ave · Buffalo, NY 14209

$36,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,734 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1900 1,246 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Next door to Roswell cancer, institute Childrens Hospital apartment complex , City honors school and downtown Buffalo. lots of new developments going on in the area the location is perfect and Buffalo ny house market is booming

Key facts

• 1,246 sq ft lot
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $36k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $36k).
• Cap rate 78.3% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.5%/yr); 56 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,029/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 959% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $919 of equity ($249 loan paydown + $670 appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $119k (77%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $36,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 78.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 257.06%
• DSCR: 12.44
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $183,804
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
291 Northampton St	0.36mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,806 (+4%)	3mo	$255,000	$141	64
91 Southampton St	0.13mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,590 (-8%)	13mo	$254,400	$160	64
113 Laurel St	0.37mi	5/1.0	1,544 (-11%)	1mo	$163,000	$106	63
285 E North St Unit S	0.30mi	5/1.0	1,833 (+6%)	20mo	$75,000	$41	60
28 Coe Pl	0.24mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,802 (+4%)	21mo	$50,000	$28	60
40 Edna Pl	0.10mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,507 (-13%)	13mo	$182,500	$121	54
436 Carlton St	0.65mi	5/1.0	1,777 (+2%)	23mo	$49,000	$28	47
9 Mayfair Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,620 (-7%)	6mo	$410,000	$253	41
32 Roehrer Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,661 (-4%)	15mo	$60,000	$36	41
183 Lemon St	0.42mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,556 (-10%)	24mo	$155,000	$100	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.86% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.46×
• Total profit: $155,791
• Equity at exit: $13,932

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 40.14×
• Total profit: $394,491
• Equity at exit: $19,860

Cash invested: $10,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14209

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,029 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$189
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $359/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $2,159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $296

Max offer price $36,000

Occupancy floor 24%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,000
• Closing costs: $1,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
184 Butler Ave Unit 1545840P Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1496	$3,226	$2.16	14d	1	1.16mi
518 Wilson St Buffalo, NY	5.0	1.5	1848	$1,500	$0.81	23d	1	1.17mi
184 14th St Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1950	$4,400	$2.26	23d	1	1.25mi
40 Putnam St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2025-11-19
   listed $155,000 Active 227-char remark

   Show marketing remark (227 chars)

   Next door to Roswell cancer, institute Childrens Hospital apartment complex , City honors school and downtown Buffalo. lots of new developments going on in the area the location is perfect and Buffalo ny house market is booming

2. 2025-01-29
   historical
3. 2025-01-29
   listed $36,000
4. 2023-11-16
   historical
5. 2023-06-28
   price $99,900
6. 2023-06-28
   status Active
7. 2023-06-26
   historical
8. 2023-05-22
   price $50,000
9. 2023-04-14
   listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $359 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $484 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$125/yr (+$10/mo · 34.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,017
• − Property taxes: −$359
• − Insurance: −$180
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,908
• − Management: −$2,908
• − Depreciation: −$1,047
• Taxable income: $26,931
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,463
• After-tax cash flow: $19,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 8,313
• Household income: $50,046
• Rent vs Own: 66.3% rent · 33.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.86%
• Current HPI: 443.9414
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.53%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+55.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-19 Listed $155,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-01-29 Listed $36,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-01-29 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-11-16 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-06-28 Price Changed $99,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-06-28 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2023-06-26 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-05-22 Price Changed $50,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-04-14 Listed $100,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $359 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.