18617 Egret Bay Blvd #308

Webster, TX 77058

$92,500D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 732 sqft · Built 1983 · Condo · Pending · 137 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,105/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$485
• Tax + insurance: −$662
• HOA: −$377
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $-651/mo
• Annual: $-7,816/yr
• Cap rate: 3.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.41%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $25,900

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $92k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-651 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $10k (89.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $10k (89.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $640 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#433 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 34% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 0.7% in Webster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 89% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.