30779 Le Baron Ct

Winchester, CA 92596

$499,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,835 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,756/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax + insurance: −$1,080
• HOA: −$126
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$789
• Net cashflow: $-855/mo
• Annual: $-10,264/yr
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.78%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $139,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $499k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-855 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $348k (30.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $376k (24.7% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $348k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#992 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Romoland Elementary (suburban): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #699 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mesa View Elementary (905 students, 45% FRL); Ethan A Chase Middle (1,368 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 25% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.