30779 Le Baron Ct · Winchester, CA 92596

$499,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,835 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 3,210 sqft lot $272/sqft · 9% below area Est $551k · 9% under $126/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale Approved! Great opportunity to own in the newer Pradera Pointe community. This home offers an open-concept layout with a spacious great room, dining area, and kitchen . .. ideal for everyday living and casual entertaining. The kitchen features white Shaker cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a walk-in pantry. Downstairs includes vinyl plank flooring, while the upstairs bedrooms are finished with carpet for added comfort. A separate upstairs laundry room adds convenience. The backyard has been upgraded with professionally installed pavers and artificial turf, creating a low-maintenance outdoor space.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Vinyl plank flooring
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WHITE SHAKER CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $499k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-855 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $348k (30.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $376k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $348k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#992 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Romoland Elementary (suburban): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #699 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mesa View Elementary (905 students, 45% FRL); Ethan A Chase Middle (1,368 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 25% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $347,898 (30.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.78%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $551,309
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: -9.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28796 Avenida Belleza	0.20mi	4/3.0	1,890 (+3%)	4mo	$656,990	$348	80
29081 Soffel	0.07mi	4/2.0	2,033 (+11%)	0mo	$560,000	$275	77
30585 Camino Placer	0.34mi	4/3.0	1,890 (+3%)	2mo	$614,560	$325	75
28753 Via De Manzana	0.39mi	4/3.0	1,890 (+3%)	1mo	$645,990	$342	74
29230 Hondo Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,919 (+5%)	3mo	$580,000	$302	73
29238 Shane Ct	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,921 (+5%)	3mo	$646,000	$336	72
30943 Envision Ct	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,584 (-14%)	0mo	$565,000	$357	67
30887 Grand Prix Ct	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,567 (-15%)	3mo	$560,000	$357	56
30668 Paul Ln	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,033 (+11%)	4mo	$611,615	$301	50
30690 Hawkscrest	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,042 (+11%)	3mo	$610,000	$299	42
30681 Expedition	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,042 (+11%)	4mo	$579,000	$284	42
31144 Ferguson Ct	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,085 (+14%)	1mo	$639,990	$307	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $206,570
• Equity at exit: $449,539

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $632,016
• Equity at exit: $969,447

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 50 active · 28 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.4 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $596,495 ($304/sqft)
• Median days on market: 86 d
• This list price: 2% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,756 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$805 /mo · $9,664/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$126
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$789
• Net cashflow: $-855

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,839

Max offer price $347,898

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-573	-5% $-714	+0% $-855	+5% $-997	+10% $-1,138
Rent	-10% $-1,152	-5% $-1,004	+0% $-855	+5% $-707	+10% $-559
Rate	-1.0pp $-604	-0.5pp $-728	base $-855	+0.5pp $-985	+1.0pp $-1,116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30851 Le Baron Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1835	$3,245	$1.77	10d	1	0.01mi
30607 Cyclone Ave Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2056	$3,199	$1.56	75d	1	0.10mi
28798 Enclave Ln Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1835	$3,095	$1.69	3d	1	0.12mi
28798 Enclave Ln Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1835	$3,200	$1.74	18d	1	0.12mi
28876 Camaro Dr Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	2400	$3,350	$1.40	3d	1	0.14mi
28841 Cutlass St Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	2391	$3,395	$1.42	114d	1	0.14mi
29221 Searchers Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	2374	$3,695	$1.56	13d	1	0.19mi
30816 Viper Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$3,050	$1.93	2d	1	0.21mi
28743 Camaro Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2059	$3,300	$1.60	43d	1	0.22mi
30826 Grand Prix Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1375	$2,850	$2.07	165d	1	0.27mi
28650 New Yorker Ln Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	1875	$3,500	$1.87	37d	1	0.27mi
30622 Dart Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1378	$4,650	$3.37	2d	1	0.28mi
30812 Malibu Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1375	$2,995	$2.18	165d	1	0.29mi
28635 Matador Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1775	$2,995	$1.69	114d	1	0.31mi
30547 Operetta St Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1567	$3,100	$1.98	114d	1	0.33mi
28872 Camino Santiago Unit MAIN HOME Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2446	$3,595	$1.47	151d	1	0.36mi
30861 Rushing Water St Winchester, CA	3.0	3.0	2076	$3,500	$1.69	0d	1	0.40mi
29343 Windy Willow Ln Menifee, CA	4.0	3.0	2083	$4,500	$2.16	0d	1	0.46mi
30540 Altima Ct Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	1874	$3,300	$1.76	3d	1	0.47mi
30540 Altima Ct Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	1873	$3,300	$1.76	114d	1	0.47mi
31097 Linden Flower Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	2617	$6,000	$2.29	12d	1	0.53mi
31097 Linden Flower Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	2617	$6,000	$2.29	0d	1	0.53mi
31097 Linden Flower Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	2617	$7,500	$2.87	116d	1	0.53mi
30872 Hawkscrest Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2227	$3,350	$1.50	0d	1	0.64mi
30783 Pony Express Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2239	$3,200	$1.43	0d	1	0.71mi
29291 Mountain Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,399	$2.00	21d	1	0.72mi
29291 Mountain Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,399	$2.00	10d	1	0.72mi
29342 Marx Way Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1469	$3,100	$2.11	72d	1	0.73mi
29502 Marx Way Menifee, CA	3.0	2.5	1469	$3,000	$2.04	43d	1	0.75mi
29322 Leopard Wood Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,499	$2.06	1d	1	0.77mi
29328 Leopard Wood Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,569	$2.02	1d	1	0.77mi
29439 Walnut Tree Way Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	1858	$3,709	$2.00	51d	1	0.83mi
29422 Walnut Tree Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,419	$1.93	35d	1	0.83mi
29422 Walnut Tree Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,469	$1.96	91d	1	0.83mi
29394 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	929	$3,809	$4.10	0d	1	0.84mi
29428 Walnut Tree Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,399	$2.00	88d	1	0.84mi
29428 Walnut Tree Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	20d	1	0.84mi
29449 White Ash Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1532	$3,379	$2.21	155d	1	0.84mi
29423 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,379	$1.91	37d	1	0.84mi
29423 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,469	$1.96	122d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-11-02
   days on market $499,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-11-01
   days on market $499,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-10-31
   days on market $499,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-10-30
   days on market $499,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-10-29
   days on market $499,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-10-28
   days on market $499,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-10-27
   days on market $499,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-10-26
   days on market $499,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-10-26
   pricestatus $499,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-04-01
    status Pending Sale
11. 2026-03-25
    listed $399,000 Active
12. 2026-03-07
    status Active
13. 2026-01-06
    status Active
14. 2026-01-02
    status Active
15. 2025-12-31
    status Active
16. 2025-09-23
    historical Active Under Contract
17. 2025-08-18
    listed $490,000 Active
18. 2025-08-15
    historical
19. 2025-06-23
    status Active
20. 2025-05-27
    status Pending Sale
21. 2025-05-14
    listed $530,000 Active
22. 2025-05-07
    historical
23. 2024-05-24
    soldstatus $521,785 Closed Sale
24. 2024-04-17
    status Pending Sale
25. 2024-04-04
    price $506,990
26. 2024-02-10
    listed $516,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,664 · $805/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,664 · $805/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$9,664
• − Insurance: −$3,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,606
• − Management: −$3,606
• − HOA: −$1,512
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$19,077
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,579
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,175–$27,525 screening

This single-family home in the Pradera Pointe community is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout and modern features, making it an ideal investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace vinyl plank flooring with hardwood or tile — Improves durability and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mesa View Elementary Middle Ethan A Chase Middle

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Romoland Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0633390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,935
• Composite: 37.36/100
• National rank: #8931
• State rank: #699 of 1400 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 52/100

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #992
• US rank: #24750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Riverside County · 2,664,475 people
• City population: 38,981
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 19% of renters

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Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-22.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $399,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-07 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-01-06 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-12-31 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-09-23 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-08-18 Listed $490,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-06-23 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-05-27 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listed $530,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-07 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2024-05-24 Sold (MLS) $521,785 CRMLS
• 2024-04-17 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-04-04 Price Changed $506,990 CRMLS
• 2024-02-10 Listed $516,990 CRMLS

Property tax history

+152.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,664 · +79.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.