7914 Edmonston Cir

Lakewood Ranch, FL 34201

$675,000C

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,452 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 248 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,666/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,540
• Tax + insurance: −$1,007
• HOA: −$112
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,400
• Net cashflow: $607/mo
• Annual: $7,287/yr
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.86%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $189,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $675k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $607 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $667k (1.2% below list).
• It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($594k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $594k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert Willis Elementary School (math 83% / reading 79%, grade A+, #95 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 765 students, 22% FRL); Braden River High School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #201 of 667 statewide, top 30%, 1,774 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 12 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $84k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $445k; list at $675k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.