103 Old Hickory Rd

Newton, MS 39345

$69,900B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 856 sqft · Built 1965 · Other · Active · 141 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $864/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $228/mo
• Annual: $2,734/yr
• Cap rate: 10.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.97%
• DSCR: 1.62
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($864 rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#292 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Newton Municipal School District (town): math 19% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #91 of 130 in MS (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newton County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.