103 Old Hickory Rd · Newton, MS 39345

$69,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 856 sqft · Other public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1965 $82/sqft · 31% below area Est $102k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INCIME PRODUCIING 2 bedroom 1 bath New central heat and air installed in 2025, long term renter currently being rented at $700 per month.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1965
• Listed 139 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $69,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$101,671) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($864 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#292 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Newton Municipal School District (town): math 19% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #91 of 130 in MS (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.97%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $101,671
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -31.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $20,052
• Equity at exit: $28,371

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $54,747
• Equity at exit: $41,478

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39345

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $864 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $706/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $575

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,900 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,900 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,900 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-01-30
    listed $69,900 Active 137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    INCIME PRODUCIING 2 bedroom 1 bath New central heat and air installed in 2025, long term renter currently being rented at $700 per month.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $706 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $706 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$706
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$829
• − Management: −$829
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $1,702
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$409
• After-tax cash flow: $2,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton Municipal School District
• NCES district ID: 2803180
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $34,333
• Composite: 17.23/100
• National rank: #9097
• State rank: #91 of 130 in MS

Livability — Newton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #292
• US rank: #22078

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newton, MS
• Population (ZIP): 5,571

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,329 people
• By 2030: 20,990 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 20,188 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 19,212 · -9.9%
• By 2075: 16,424 · -23.0%
• By 2100: 13,006 · -39.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 64% White 33% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -34.1pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+39.3 2012: R+31.4 2008: R+34.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Current HPI: 134.8882
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Listed $69,900 EMR

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $706 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.