4095 Buffalo Jump Rd

Three Forks, MT 59752

$135,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · Built 2006 · Other · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,409/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $971/mo
• Annual: $11,646/yr
• Cap rate: 14.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.81%
• DSCR: 2.37
• 1% rule: 1.78%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $135k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $971 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#15 in MT, #2,253 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Three Forks H S (rural): math 20% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #174 of 339 in MT (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 1,706 units permitted in Gallatin County in 2024 (533 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gallatin County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The satellite image suggests a large structure with no visible roof damage.
• Major: exterior — The satellite image shows a large, isolated structure with no visible landscaping or fencing.
• Major: landscaping — No visible landscaping or curb appeal in the satellite image.