4095 Buffalo Jump Rd · Logan, MT 59752

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · Other · 24 Days on market

Built 2006 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Wood stove
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• LARGE MASTER SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• PROPANE FURNACE
• WOOD STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $135k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $971 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#354 in MT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Three Forks H S (rural): math 20% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #174 of 339 in MT (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 1,706 units permitted in Gallatin County in 2024 (533 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gallatin County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $132,975 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.81%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $39,973
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $114,549
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59752

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,409 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $971

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,064	-5% $1,017	+0% $971	+5% $924	+10% $877
Rent	-10% $780	-5% $875	+0% $971	+5% $1,066	+10% $1,161
Rate	-1.0pp $1,038	-0.5pp $1,005	base $971	+0.5pp $936	+1.0pp $900

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-05-26
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,313
• − Management: −$2,313
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $10,098
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,423
• After-tax cash flow: $9,223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The property appears to be a large, isolated structure with significant repairs and maintenance needed, including roof, exterior, and landscaping. The satellite image suggests a large footprint, but no interior photos are available to assess the condition of the interior walls, flooring, or systems.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The satellite image suggests a large structure with no visible roof damage.
• Major exterior — The satellite image shows a large, isolated structure with no visible landscaping or fencing.
• Major landscaping — No visible landscaping or curb appeal in the satellite image.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the home's appearance and appeal to potential buyers or renters.
• Both exterior repairs — Improves the home's overall appearance and value.
• Both roof repair — Ensures the home's structural integrity and protects the interior from water damage.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The satellite image suggests a large structure with no visible roof damage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · The satellite image shows a large, isolated structure with no visible landscaping or fencing.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · No visible landscaping or curb appeal in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the home's appearance and appeal to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both exterior repairs — Improves the home's overall appearance and value. ↑
• Both roof repair — Ensures the home's structural integrity and protects the interior from water damage. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Three Forks H S
• NCES district ID: 3026190
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $51,699
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #10644
• State rank: #174 of 339 in MT

Livability — Logan

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #354
• US rank: #27011

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,982

Population outlook (Gallatin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 129,625 people
• By 2030: 144,940 · +11.8%
• By 2040: 176,266 · +36.0%
• By 2050: 209,250 · +61.4%
• By 2075: 294,207 · +127.0%
• By 2100: 360,558 · +178.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 5% Serbian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gallatin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 46.8% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 3.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.2 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+1.0 2012: R+5.3 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.32%
• Current HPI: 287.4147
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $135,000 FSBO.com