4805 Wheeler Dr

The Colony, TX 75056

$282,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,293/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,479
• Tax + insurance: −$538
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-206/mo
• Annual: $-2,469/yr
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.13%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $78,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $282k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-206 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (18.7% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $229k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#464 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lewisville ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #109 of 826 in TX (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Morningside El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 364 students, 36% FRL); Lakeview Middle (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,143 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 426 students, 53% FRL); The Colony H S (math 33% / reading 56%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,895 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 26% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 438 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.9% in The Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.