4805 Wheeler Dr · The Colony, TX 75056

$282,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1977 6,621 sqft lot $186/sqft · 13% below area Est $325k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELLERS OPEN TO PROVIDING AN ALLOWANCE FOR UPDATES! In the heart of The Colony in an established neighborhood, this 3 bed 2 bath home is in a perfect location for those wanting a quiet neighborhood just minutes away from the lake, shopping, parks, restaurants, and entertainment. With quick access to Hwy 121, commuters and adventurers can get anywhere! Open concept living and dining spaces open the flow of the common areas. New paint in all bedrooms makes them light and bright. Laundry room near the bedrooms is a nice convenience, as is the large hallway storage closet. Primary bedroom has a large closet and private ensuite. Semi-private alley access to the attached 2 car garage and backyard. Put your personal touches and updates into this house and make it HOME! This would also make a fantastic investment opportunity.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Private ensuite
• 6,621 sq ft lot

Tags

• QUICK ACCESS TO HWY 121
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AND DINING
• LAUNDRY ROOM NEAR BEDROOMS
• LARGE HALLWAY STORAGE CLOSET
• PRIVATE ENSUITE
• ATTACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $282k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-206 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.9% in The Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#464 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lewisville ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #109 of 826 in TX (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Morningside El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 364 students, 36% FRL); Lakeview Middle (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,143 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 426 students, 53% FRL); The Colony H S (math 33% / reading 56%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,895 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 26% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 438 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,298 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.13%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,883
• List price: $282,000
• Delta: -13.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5001 Wheeler Cir	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+0%)	7mo	$322,000	$212	82
4840 Graham Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-7%)	2mo	$359,000	$255	81
4901 Ward Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-12%)	3mo	$310,000	$232	72
4821 Hamilton Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,711 (+13%)	2mo	$370,000	$216	69
4913 Walker Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,711 (+13%)	1mo	$299,900	$175	68
5025 Wheeler Cir	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,711 (+13%)	0mo	$400,000	$234	63
4933 Crawford Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,684 (+11%)	7mo	$350,000	$208	60
5016 Wheeler Cir	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,727 (+14%)	4mo	$349,000	$202	59
4514 Jenkins St	0.35mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,381 (-9%)	1mo	$259,499	$188	59
4713 Jennings Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,684 (+11%)	5mo	$375,000	$223	57
6828 Younger Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,321 (-13%)	2mo	$330,000	$250	53
4421 Larner St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+14%)	4mo	$379,950	$220	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-65,445
• Equity at exit: $42,047

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-99,522
• Equity at exit: $24,382

Cash invested: $78,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75056

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 438
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,293 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,479
• Tax from tax record: −$421 /mo · $5,051/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,553

Max offer price $245,650

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-46	-5% $-126	+0% $-206	+5% $-286	+10% $-365
Rent	-10% $-387	-5% $-296	+0% $-206	+5% $-115	+10% $-25
Rate	-1.0pp $-64	-0.5pp $-134	base $-206	+0.5pp $-279	+1.0pp $-353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,500
• Closing costs: $8,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4808 Graham Ct The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,150	$1.26	19d	1	0.06mi
4805 Woodruff Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,099	$1.52	23d	1	0.08mi
4840 Graham Ct The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,200	$1.56	45d	1	0.11mi
4904 Watkins Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,300	$1.31	26d	1	0.13mi
4813 Wagner Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,345	$1.66	45d	1	0.15mi
4908 Wagner Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$2,200	$1.45	26d	1	0.17mi
4628 Nervin St The Colony, TX	3.0	1.0	1112	$1,790	$1.61	45d	1	0.20mi
4924 Wagner Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	2107	$2,300	$1.09	9d	1	0.20mi
4612 Larner St The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1253	$2,141	$1.71	22d	1	0.23mi
4916 N Colony Blvd The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,200	$1.25	20d	1	0.24mi
4604 Nervin St The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,850	$1.50	45d	1	0.27mi
4933 Ashlock Dr The Colony, TX	4.0	2.0	1795	$2,195	$1.22	26d	1	0.32mi
4933 Ashlock Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1795	$2,195	$1.22	22d	1	0.32mi
6816 Curry Dr The Colony, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,500	$1.46	45d	1	0.34mi
4529 Larner St The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1762	$2,395	$1.36	1d	1	0.34mi
4716 Roberts Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1881	$2,695	$1.43	9d	1	0.44mi
6853 Younger Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,350	$1.48	45d	1	0.47mi
5124 Reed Dr The Colony, TX	4.0	3.0	2135	$6,000	$2.81	0d	1	0.50mi
4412 Hale St The Colony, TX	4.0	2.0	1762	$2,496	$1.42	1d	1	0.50mi
4423 Chapman St The Colony, TX	2.0	2.0	1227	$1,780	$1.45	20d	1	0.54mi
6824 Fryer St The Colony, TX	4.0	2.0	1826	$1,300	$0.71	45d	1	0.54mi
4504 Keys Dr The Colony, TX	4.0	2.0	1854	$2,495	$1.35	26d	1	0.60mi
6108 Jennings Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1946	$2,345	$1.21	45d	1	0.61mi
4248 Driscoll Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,055	$1.64	0d	1	0.79mi
5260 Pruitt Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1946	$2,300	$1.18	20d	1	0.82mi
5217 Gates Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,175	$1.63	4d	1	0.85mi
5300 Slay Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1339	$2,150	$1.61	22d	1	0.90mi
5316 N Colony Blvd The Colony, TX	4.0	2.0	1711	$2,300	$1.34	6d	1	0.91mi
5201 Marks Cir The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1339	$2,185	$1.63	1d	1	0.93mi
5212 Knox Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$3,400	$2.47	26d	1	0.94mi
4334 Newton St The Colony, TX	4.0	2.0	1854	$3,500	$1.89	26d	1	0.94mi
4161 Driscoll Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$2,190	$1.48	22d	1	1.03mi
4161 Driscoll Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$2,190	$1.48	26d	1	1.03mi
5501 Adams Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1339	$2,300	$1.72	45d	1	1.07mi
5512 Rutledge Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,100	$1.47	7d	1	1.08mi
4144 Newton St The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,375	$1.40	22d	1	1.08mi
4144 Newton St The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,375	$1.40	7d	1	1.08mi
4136 Clary Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,549	$1.57	7d	1	1.12mi
5528 Adams Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1902	$1,995	$1.05	45d	1	1.15mi
5541 Ragan Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,140	$1.49	21d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $282,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $282,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $282,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $282,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $282,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $282,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $282,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $289,000 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    SELLERS OPEN TO PROVIDING AN ALLOWANCE FOR UPDATES! In the heart of The Colony in an established neighborhood, this 3 bed 2 bath home is in a perfect location for those wanting a quiet neighborhood just minutes away from the lake, shopping, parks, restaurants, and entertainment. With quick access to Hwy 121, commuters and adventurers can get anywhere! Open concept living and dining spaces open the flow of the common areas. New paint in all bedrooms makes them light and bright. Laundry room near the bedrooms is a nice convenience, as is the large hallway storage closet. Primary bedroom has a large closet and private ensuite. Semi-private alley access to the attached 2 car garage and backyard. Put your personal touches and updates into this house and make it HOME! This would also make a fantastic investment opportunity.

17. 2026-04-04
    listed $295,000 Active 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    SELLERS OPEN TO PROVIDING AN ALLOWANCE FOR UPDATES! In the heart of The Colony in an established neighborhood, this 3 bed 2 bath home is in a perfect location for those wanting a quiet neighborhood just minutes away from the lake, shopping, parks, restaurants, and entertainment. With quick access to Hwy 121, commuters and adventurers can get anywhere! Open concept living and dining spaces open the flow of the common areas. New paint in all bedrooms makes them light and bright. Laundry room near the bedrooms is a nice convenience, as is the large hallway storage closet. Primary bedroom has a large closet and private ensuite. Semi-private alley access to the attached 2 car garage and backyard. Put your personal touches and updates into this house and make it HOME! This would also make a fantastic investment opportunity.

18. 2020-06-23
    soldstatus
19. 2020-06-19
    soldstatus Sold 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    MOVE IN READY!!Lovely 3bedroom, 2 bath, single story home. Great loation and neighboor. New roofing (1-29-2020) Fresh interior paint, Clean carpet, ceramic title in entry kitchen and all wet areas, two dining areas, beautiful corner fireplace, and a big backyard. Come check this house and make it yours! If you have any questions please call me. The owner will not make repairs.

20. 2020-05-30
    status Pending 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    MOVE IN READY!!Lovely 3bedroom, 2 bath, single story home. Great loation and neighboor. New roofing (1-29-2020) Fresh interior paint, Clean carpet, ceramic title in entry kitchen and all wet areas, two dining areas, beautiful corner fireplace, and a big backyard. Come check this house and make it yours! If you have any questions please call me. The owner will not make repairs.

21. 2020-02-14
    listed $228,500 Active 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    MOVE IN READY!!Lovely 3bedroom, 2 bath, single story home. Great loation and neighboor. New roofing (1-29-2020) Fresh interior paint, Clean carpet, ceramic title in entry kitchen and all wet areas, two dining areas, beautiful corner fireplace, and a big backyard. Come check this house and make it yours! If you have any questions please call me. The owner will not make repairs.

22. 2010-11-05
    soldstatus
23. 2010-10-29
    soldstatus Closed
24. 2010-08-11
    historical
25. 2010-03-14
    listed $109,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,051 · $421/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,161 · $430/mo
• Expected delta: +$110/yr (+$9/mo · 2.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,516
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,796
• − Property taxes: −$5,051
• − Insurance: −$1,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,201
• − Management: −$2,201
• − Depreciation: −$8,204
• Taxable loss: −$7,347
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,763
• After-tax cash flow: $-706/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lewisville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827300
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,351
• Composite: 47.1/100
• National rank: #2333
• State rank: #109 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Colony

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #9336

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Colony, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 69,628
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,628
• Household income: $119,682
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1704.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 18% Asian 17% Two or more races 13% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -235.14%
• Current HPI: 288.9388
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+162.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $289,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $295,000 NTREIS
• 2020-06-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-06-19 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-05-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-02-14 Listed $228,500 NTREIS
• 2010-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-10-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2010-08-11 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2010-03-14 Listed $109,950 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,051 · -14.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.