2449 Ferguson Rd

Cincinnati, OH 45238

$289,000C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,022 sqft · Built 1948 · MultiFamily · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,298/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$427
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $663/mo
• Annual: $7,952/yr
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.83%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $289k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $663 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $331/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $289k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#130 in OH, #1,856 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Cincinnati Public Schools (urban): math 25% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #581 of 656 in OH (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 801 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (190 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $289k implies a 445% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.9% in Cincinnati — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,298/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 2012% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.