2449 Ferguson Rd · Cincinnati, OH 45238

$289,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,022 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1948 8,756 sqft lot Est $308k · 6% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Big brick duplex w 2 car garage. Missing mechanics needs CASH, AS-IS buyer only. Offers require proof of cash funds. AGENTS FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS IN ATTACHED DOCUMENTS!

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Updated heating
• Double pane windows

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FENCED BACK YARD
• DIMENSIONAL ROOF
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• UPDATED HEATING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in Westwood suburb; Directions available
• Financial info: Two-unit property (both units are 3-bedroom); Total buildings: 1

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Public parking access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Duplex; Two stories; Entry level includes a poured foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Poured foundation; Second floor area listed
• Exterior features: Insulated windows; Lot approximately 0.201 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: Unit 1: 3 bedrooms; Unit 2: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Unit 1: 1 full bathroom; Unit 2: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas)
• Interior features: Full basement; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $663 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $331/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $289k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.9% in Cincinnati — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#130 in OH, #1,856 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Cincinnati Public Schools (urban): math 25% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #581 of 656 in OH (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 801 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (190 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,298/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 2012% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $289k implies a 445% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $289,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.83%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $308,244
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2432 Ferguson Rd	0.05mi	4/4.0	2,800 (-7%)	20mo	$295,000	$105	61
3172 Werk Rd	0.74mi	4/4.0	3,200 (+6%)	2mo	$275,000	$86	46
3154 Werk Rd	0.72mi	4/4.0	3,228 (+7%)	9mo	$290,000	$90	39
3124 Werk Rd	0.68mi	4/4.0	3,088 (+2%)	24mo	$350,000	$113	37
3148 Werk Rd	0.71mi	4/4.5	2,900 (-4%)	21mo	$345,000	$119	33
5233 Glenway Ave	0.51mi	4/4.0	3,436 (+14%)	20mo	$206,000	$60	29
4975 Glenway Ave	0.74mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,752 (-9%)	17mo	$280,000	$102	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,712
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $82,851
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45238

• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,298 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$307 /mo · $3,682/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $663

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,459

Max offer price $289,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $826	-5% $744	+0% $663	+5% $581	+10% $499
Rent	-10% $402	-5% $532	+0% $663	+5% $793	+10% $923
Rate	-1.0pp $808	-0.5pp $736	base $663	+0.5pp $588	+1.0pp $512

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$3,298
Total (2 units)			$3,298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3283 Pickbury Dr Cincinnati, OH	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,400	$1.14	44d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 519-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 451-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 396-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $289,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,682 · $307/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,095 · $341/mo
• Expected delta: +$413/yr (+$34/mo · 11.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$3,682
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,166
• − Management: −$3,166
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable income: $3,522
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$845
• After-tax cash flow: $7,107/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cincinnati Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3904375
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $35,743
• Composite: 25.21/100
• National rank: #7508
• State rank: #581 of 656 in OH

Livability — Cincinnati

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #1856

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cincinnati, OH
• County: Hamilton County · 701,295 people
• City population: 505,555
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 48,351
• Household income: $66,277
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2012.0

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 826,054 people
• By 2030: 830,947 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 832,319 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 822,428 · -0.4%
• By 2075: 788,688 · -4.5%
• By 2100: 710,674 · -14.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 28% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: D (+14.9) · D 57.0% · R 42.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 7.0pp · 2024: 14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.9 2020: D+15.9 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.57%
• Current HPI: 213.5097
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.87%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+171.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $289,000 Cincy MLS
• 2008-04-28 Sold (MLS) $53,000 Cincy MLS
• 2008-03-05 Listed $64,900 Cincy MLS
• 2008-01-03 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2007-10-15 Listed $64,900 Cincy MLS
• 2007-10-08 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2007-07-25 Listed $152,500 Cincy MLS
• 2006-10-01 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2005-12-15 Listed $159,000 Cincy MLS
• 2004-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-21 Sold (MLS) $139,000 Cincy MLS
• 2004-01-28 Listed $139,900 Cincy MLS
• 1993-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $106,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,682 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.