3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,222 sqft ·
Built 1965
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 21 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,231/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$273
Tax + insurance
−$90
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$258
Net cashflow
$609/mo
Annual
$7,311/yr
Cap rate
20.35%
Cash-on-cash
50.21%
DSCR
3.23
1% rule
2.37%
Cash to close
$14,560
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $52k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $609 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $52k).
It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $51k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $2k of equity ($360 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#107 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
Opp City (town): math 26% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 129 in AL (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Covington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Covington County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 20.4% vs local median 3.9% in Opp — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BY41ND6F2JQ545
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29