945 Agnes Scott Cir

Panama City, FL 32405

$199,900C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,909 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 134 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,194/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$762
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-77/mo
• Annual: $-918/yr
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.50%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-918/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (6.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Northside Elementary School (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 598 students, 59% FRL); Jinks Middle School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 570 students, 70% FRL); Bay High School (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,255 students, 53% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 380 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $200k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.