35 Grove St

Essex Junction, VT 05452

$160,000B

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Pending · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,566/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$306
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $883/mo
• Annual: $10,593/yr
• Cap rate: 12.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.64%
• DSCR: 2.05
• 1% rule: 1.60%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $883 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in VT, #25 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• Zoned schools: Hiawatha Elementary School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C, #31 of 192 statewide, top 21%, 223 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 2.5% in Essex Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.