35 Grove St · Essex Junction, VT 05452

$160,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1999 4,791 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime Essex Junction location with excellent opportunity just minutes from Five Corners and close to the Essex Educational Center. Situated on . 11 acres, the property currently includes a 3-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home that is not habitable. The property is being sold as is and will require a cash purchase. Buyers are encouraged to complete their own due diligence regarding use, removal, redevelopment, and permitting possibilities. Also see MLS# 5086941

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Foreclosed / Bank-owned / REO

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service on site (GMP); Gas available at street (VT Gas); High-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured / Mobile style; Manufactured home; Single-story (manufactured) entry
• Construction: Built in 1999; Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: City lot; Near public transportation; Paved driveway; Public road frontage

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Other type heating
• Interior features: Five total rooms; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $883 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 2.5% in Essex Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in VT, #25 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• Zoned schools: Hiawatha Elementary School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C, #31 of 192 statewide, top 21%, 223 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $155,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.64%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $30,356
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $99,081
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05452

• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,566 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,868/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $883

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,449

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $973	-5% $928	+0% $883	+5% $837	+10% $792
Rent	-10% $680	-5% $781	+0% $883	+5% $984	+10% $1,085
Rate	-1.0pp $963	-0.5pp $923	base $883	+0.5pp $841	+1.0pp $799

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
177 Autumn Pond Way Unit 177-301 Essex Junction, VT	2.0	2.0	1057	$2,600	$2.46	44d	1	0.43mi
177 Autumn Pond Way Unit 177-208 Essex Junction, VT	2.0	2.0	933	$2,550	$2.73	44d	1	0.43mi
375 Autumn Pond Way Essex Junction, VT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$2,650	$2.77	22d	9	0.56mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   statuslisting id $160,000 Pending 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on marketlisting id $160,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $160,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on marketlisting id $160,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    listed $160,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    Prime Essex Junction location with excellent opportunity just minutes from Five Corners and close to the Essex Educational Center. Situated on . 11 acres, the property currently includes a 3-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home that is not habitable. The property is being sold as is and will require a cash purchase. Buyers are encouraged to complete their own due diligence regarding use, removal, redevelopment, and permitting possibilities. Also see MLS# 5086941

15. 2026-05-04
    listed $160,000 Active 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    Prime Essex Junction location with excellent opportunity just minutes from Five Corners and close to the Essex Educational Center. Situated on . 11 acres, the property currently includes a 3-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home that is not habitable. The property is being sold as is and will require a cash purchase. Buyers are encouraged to complete their own due diligence regarding use, removal, redevelopment, and permitting possibilities. Also see MLS# 5086941

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,868 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,954 · $246/mo
• Expected delta: +$86/yr (+$7/mo · 3.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,868
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,464
• − Management: −$2,464
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $8,584
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,060
• After-tax cash flow: $8,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Essex Junction

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #25

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Essex Junction, VT
• County: Chittenden County · 110,603 people
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• Population (ZIP): 22,626
• Household income: $101,349
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 512.0

Population outlook (Chittenden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 170,769 people
• By 2030: 174,716 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 180,337 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 183,768 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 194,646 · +14.0%
• By 2100: 194,933 · +14.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chittenden

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 75.4% · R 21.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+54.5 2016: D+46.8 2012: D+41.9 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -218.29%
• Current HPI: 310.788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $160,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $160,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+21.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,868 · +13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.