470 Hardscrabble Rd

Heuvelton, NY 13658

$19,900C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,035/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax + insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $629/mo
• Annual: $7,545/yr
• Cap rate: 44.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 135.41%
• DSCR: 7.02
• 1% rule: 5.20%
• Cash to close: $5,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $20k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $629 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($138 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#922 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, crime F.
• Lisbon Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #482 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.6% of price.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.