470 Hardscrabble Rd · Heuvelton, NY 13658

$19,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1990

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Estate sale: Being sold in "AS-IS" condition. Residing on a 1-acre lot and located in the Lisbon School District this single-wide manufactured home is mostly gutted. It's unknown if it could be restored for occupancy (please consult a contractor and Town of Lisbon Code Enforcement). All utilities are off and the conditions of the mechanicals, well and septic are unknown. Cash offers only.

Key facts

• Built 1990
• Listed 12 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $629 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#922 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, crime F.
• Lisbon Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #482 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($138 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.6% of price.

Recommended offer $19,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 44.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 135.41%
• DSCR: 7.02
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.76% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.18×
• Total profit: $45,555
• Equity at exit: $12,209

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.45×
• Total profit: $102,814
• Equity at exit: $21,885

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13658

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,035 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $918/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $629

Break-even live

Break-even rent $239

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $694	-5% $634	+0% $629	+5% $623	+10% $617
Rent	-10% $547	-5% $588	+0% $629	+5% $670	+10% $711
Rate	-1.0pp $639	-0.5pp $634	base $629	+0.5pp $624	+1.0pp $618

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   listed $19,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $918 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $918 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$918
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$994
• − Management: −$994
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $7,725
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,854
• After-tax cash flow: $5,691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lisbon Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617430
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,098
• Composite: 36.79/100
• National rank: #4569
• State rank: #482 of 590 in NY

Livability — Heuvelton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #18006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,028

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 5% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.76%
• Current HPI: 313.0003
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — SLCMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $19,900 SLCMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $918 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.