214 Georgian Way

Heron Bay, GA 30248

$314,900F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,844 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,340/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax + insurance: −$525
• HOA: −$51
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-379/mo
• Annual: $-4,545/yr
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.15%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $88,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-379 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (21.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (25.7% below list).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $234k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#159 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Griffin-Spalding County (suburban): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #151 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jordan Hill Road Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #878 of 1,228 statewide, top 75%, 356 students, 98% FRL); Kennedy Road Middle School (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #392 of 470 statewide, top 84%, 477 students, 98% FRL); Spalding High School (math 11% / reading 25%, grade F, #258 of 424 statewide, top 62%, 1,252 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 68% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 732 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 49d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 342 units permitted in Spalding County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Spalding County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.