1002 Pheasant Hill Dr

Rolla, MO 65401

$245,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,559/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-310/mo
• Annual: $-3,716/yr
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-310 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (36.4% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $156k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#76 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Rolla 31 (town): math 38% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #118 of 324 in MO (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harry S. Truman Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 431 students, 51% FRL); Rolla Sr. High (math 25% / reading 61%, grade F, #211 of 521 statewide, top 41%, 1,323 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.2%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 162 units permitted in Phelps County in 2024 (83 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Phelps County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.5% in Rolla — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.