1002 Pheasant Hill Dr · Rolla, MO 65401

$245,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1992 10,454 sqft lot $138/sqft · 7% above area Est $304k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath two-story home located in a well-established neighborhood convenient to parks, schools, shopping, dining, and more! Enjoy relaxing on the cozy covered front porch before stepping inside to a functional floor plan featuring the kitchen, living room, dining room, laundry room, and half bath on the main level. Upstairs offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, including the primary suite. The full walk-out basement includes an additional full bathroom with approximately one-third unfinished, offering great storage or future expansion potential. Complete with a 2-car garage, this home offers comfort, convenience, and room to grow! Metal shed included.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Great storage
• Metal shed

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-OUT BASEMENT
• GREAT STORAGE
• FUTURE EXPANSION POTENTIAL
• METAL SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (220 volts)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Private ownership; House structure
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Front porch; Back yard; Front yard; Chain-link fencing in back yard; Sliding doors; Storm doors; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Built-in electric oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Partially finished basement with walk-out access and storage; Full bathroom in basement; 9+ ft poured basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-310 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (36.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.5% in Rolla — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#76 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Rolla 31 (town): math 38% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #118 of 324 in MO (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harry S. Truman Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 431 students, 51% FRL); Rolla Sr. High (math 25% / reading 61%, grade F, #211 of 521 statewide, top 41%, 1,323 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.2%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 162 units permitted in Phelps County in 2024 (83 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Phelps County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,871 (36.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,154
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -19.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
708 Chestnut Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,754 (-1%)	10mo	$258,900	$148	73
589 Sycamore Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,913 (+8%)	7mo	$325,000	$170	68
1204 Sycamore Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,658 (-7%)	10mo	$239,900	$145	67
1508 Overland Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,756 (-1%)	4mo	$300,000	$171	61
1415 Overland Dr	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,809 (+2%)	1mo	$314,900	$174	60
1308 Sycamore Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,960 (+10%)	7mo	$319,900	$163	59
1221 Casey Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,760 (-1%)	3mo	$299,900	$170	58
808 Oxford Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,832 (+3%)	1mo	$289,000	$158	56
46 Mcfarland Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,723 (-3%)	4mo	$249,900	$145	55
1214 Kadison	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,794 (+1%)	10mo	$235,000	$131	52
30 Sydney Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-10%)	5mo	$254,000	$159	52
1232 Britt Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-13%)	0mo	$250,000	$161	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-51,254
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-32,817
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65401

• Home prices YoY: -26.4%
• Rents YoY: 10.2%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,559 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,850/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,951

Max offer price $190,302

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
903 Oxford Dr Rolla, MO	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,100	$0.95	44d	1	0.56mi
1305 Whitney Ln Rolla, MO	4.0	3.0	2400	$1,825	$0.76	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 679-char remark
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $245,000 Active 679-char remark
3. 2003-07-25
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,850 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,376 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$527/yr (+$44/mo · 28.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,850
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,496
• − Management: −$1,496
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$8,214
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,971
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rolla 31
• NCES district ID: 2926890
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,057
• Composite: 36.0/100
• National rank: #4786
• State rank: #118 of 324 in MO

Livability — Rolla

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #5115

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rolla, MO
• County: Phelps County · 42,017 people
• City population: 32,714
• Metro: Rolla, MO
• Population (ZIP): 32,714
• Household income: $56,081
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1122.0

Population outlook (Phelps County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,188 people
• By 2030: 43,524 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 41,211 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 38,977 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 33,846 · -23.4%
• By 2100: 27,828 · -37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Chinese 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Phelps

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.9) · D 27.9% · R 70.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.7pp toward R · 2008: -22.2pp · 2024: -42.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.9 2020: R+40.1 2016: R+42.9 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.69%
• Current HPI: 172.421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.25%
• Metro: Rolla, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Listed $245,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,850 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.