8138 S Kenneth Ave

Fowler, CA 92625

$950,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,523 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,985/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,982
• Tax + insurance: −$1,583
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,677
• Net cashflow: $-257/mo
• Annual: $-3,084/yr
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $266,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $950k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-257 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $913k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $799k (15.9% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($922k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $799k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $102k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $95k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#350 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Fowler Unified (town): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #287 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fremont Elementary (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #771 of 1,571 statewide, top 49%, 476 students, 83% FRL); John Sutter Middle (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #175 of 498 statewide, top 36%, 621 students, 87% FRL); Fowler High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 818 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 66% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.4%/yr); 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$163k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• At $7,985/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($175k/yr) (locally 767% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen countertops — Worn appearance
• Minor: Bathroom fixtures — Old and worn
• Moderate: Exterior siding — Wear and discoloration
• Moderate: Windows — Old and may need replacement
• Moderate: Flooring — Worn and may need replacement