611-613 Jefferson Ave

Elizabeth, NJ 07201

$899,000C

12 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,506 sqft · Built 1926 · MultiFamily · Under Contract · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,395/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax + insurance: −$1,498
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,183
• Net cashflow: $1,999/mo
• Annual: $23,991/yr
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.53%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $251,720

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $899k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive. Per door: $500/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $899k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($872k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $872k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#277 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities D+, schools D-, crime D-.
• Elizabeth Public Schools (suburban): math 9% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #430 of 472 in NJ (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.0%/yr); 10 active listings in the ZIP; 1,749 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (1,421 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Union County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.4% in Elizabeth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $10,395/mo this rent would consume 208% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 2200% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Dated appearance suggests they could be replaced or updated.
• Minor: Paint touch-ups — Faded paint in some areas indicates touch-ups are needed.
• Minor: Floor refinishing — Worn hardwood floors suggest refinishing or replacement.