97 4th St

Arlington, KY 42021

$124,900D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Active · 136 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,167/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $59/mo
• Annual: $707/yr
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.02%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($707/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (6.6% below list).
• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#470 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carlisle County (rural): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #59 of 165 in KY (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carlisle County Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 409 students, 66% FRL); Carlisle County Middle School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #99 of 217 statewide, top 47%, 146 students, 58% FRL); Carlisle County High School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 204 students, 56% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP.
• Carlisle County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.