97 4th St · Arlington, KY 42021

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1946 0.49 ac lot Est $118k · 6% over ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Cute as a button and ready for new owners! This three bedroom, one bath is move in ready and has been updated. Large rooms, an updated kitchen and bathroom and paint makes this an easy choice! The kitchen is central located in the house. Bonus features include 2 gas fireplaces on each side of the house, beautiful floors and updated appliances. Use the back room as a bedroom or a cozy den space. Downstairs is an unfinished basement with easy to access - plumbing and electric with lots of storage space. The lot is spacious and there is a fantastic storage room and one car garage attached to the house. This one is a must see!

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Gas fireplaces
• Unfinished basement

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• GAS FIREPLACES
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• STORAGE SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Paved driveway; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Block and vinyl siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Cooktop; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplaces in the family room and living room; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($707/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#470 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carlisle County (rural): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #59 of 165 in KY (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carlisle County Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 409 students, 66% FRL); Carlisle County Middle School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #99 of 217 statewide, top 47%, 146 students, 58% FRL); Carlisle County High School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 204 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Carlisle County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.02%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $117,936
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
97 4th St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,456 (0%)	1mo	$118,000	$81	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $31,495
• Equity at exit: $69,650

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $92,535
• Equity at exit: $119,283

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42021

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,167 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $145	-5% $102	+0% $59	+5% $16	+10% $-27
Rent	-10% $-33	-5% $13	+0% $59	+5% $105	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $91	base $59	+0.5pp $27	+1.0pp $-6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $124,900 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $124,900 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $124,900 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $124,900 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $124,900 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $124,900 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-03-27
   price $124,900
10. 2026-01-23
    listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,120
• − Management: −$1,120
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$1,363
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$327
• After-tax cash flow: $1,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlisle County
• NCES district ID: 2100960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $37,978
• Composite: 30.43/100
• National rank: #6236
• State rank: #59 of 165 in KY

Livability — Arlington

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #470
• US rank: #23430

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arlington, KY
• Population (ZIP): 1,190

Population outlook (Carlisle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,537 people
• By 2030: 4,341 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 4,003 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 3,736 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 3,405 · -25.0%
• By 2100: 3,264 · -28.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carlisle

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.6% · R 83.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.6pp toward R · 2008: -31.3pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+64.3 2016: R+64.0 2012: R+41.4 2008: R+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.85%
• Current HPI: 200.7522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-10.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $124,900 WKRMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $139,900 WKRMLS

Property tax history

-42.6%/yr

Latest (2018): $10 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.