4 Hemlock Rd

Tilton Northfield, NH 03276

$169,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 943 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,843/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$558
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-216/mo
• Annual: $-2,594/yr
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.45%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-216 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (22.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#18 in NH, #2,102 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Winnisquam Regional School District (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #64 of 98 in NH (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 301 units permitted in Belknap County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Belknap County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in Tilton Northfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.