4 Hemlock Rd · Tilton Northfield, NH 03276

$169,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 943 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2021 Est $159k · 7% over $558/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

RELOCATION brings this property to the market. Well maintained home sits on double lot. MANY updates windows, roof, skirting, to mention a few. Pet and child friendly park. Agent related to the Sellers. MOTIVATED. .

Key facts

• Easy access
• Private bath
• Rear deck

Tags

• PRIVATE BATH
• REAR DECK
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE
• ATTRACTIVE LANDSCAPING
• EASY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly park/HOA fee of 558 (includes trash and park rent)

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breaker electrical; Cable internet available
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Tan exterior
• Construction: Built in 2021; Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Commodore make (mobile); Mobile serial number 59849A; Located in Hemlocks mobile park (park approved)
• Exterior features: Landscaped; Wooded; Leased lot (mobile located in a park)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric stove
• Bedrooms: Bedroom (main level); Bedroom with bath (main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; Eat-in kitchen; Laundry room; Bedroom with bath; Living room (two listed)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (main level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-216 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (22.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in Tilton Northfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#18 in NH, #2,102 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Winnisquam Regional School District (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #64 of 98 in NH (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 301 units permitted in Belknap County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Belknap County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.

Recommended offer $131,710 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.45%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $159,367
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 Hemlock Rd	0.03mi	2/1.5	960 (+2%)	8mo	$162,000	$169	86
12 Foothills Way	0.03mi	2/1.5	1,026 (+9%)	6mo	$155,000	$151	77
1 Northbrook Rd	0.09mi	2/1.0	892 (-5%)	10mo	$155,000	$174	74
1 Foothills Way	0.05mi	2/1.5	1,036 (+10%)	10mo	$115,000	$111	71
64 Kendall St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+2%)	18mo	$237,000	$247	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.88% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-32,875
• Equity at exit: $33,940

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-37,739
• Equity at exit: $29,908

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03276

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,843 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,833/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$558
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,117

Max offer price $131,710

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
672 Central St Unit A Franklin, NH	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,950	$1.77	43d	1	0.83mi
76 Terrace Rd Franklin, NH	2.0	1.0	750	$1,675	$2.23	5d	1	0.85mi
6 Terrace Rd Unit 6A Franklin, NH	1.0	1.0	640	$1,600	$2.50	17d	1	0.97mi
20 Canal St Franklin, NH	2.0	1.0	758	$2,995	$3.95	4d	5	1.29mi
42 Franklin St Unit F Franklin, NH	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	24d	1	1.33mi
96 Franklin St Franklin, NH	2.0	1.0	550	$1,695	$3.08	43d	1	1.38mi
97 Franklin St Unit C Franklin, NH	2.0	1.0	949	$1,500	$1.58	24d	1	1.41mi
115 Franklin St Unit 6 Flanders Franklin, NH	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,875	$1.85	5d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $558 · $6,696/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,900 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $169,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,833 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,768 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: +$935/yr (+$78/mo · 51.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,833
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,770
• − Management: −$1,770
• − HOA: −$6,696
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$5,256
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,261
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winnisquam Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3307300
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $58,761
• Composite: 34.45/100
• National rank: #5194
• State rank: #64 of 98 in NH

Livability — Tilton Northfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #2102

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,046

Population outlook (Belknap County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,702 people
• By 2030: 60,353 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 58,264 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 54,533 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 45,622 · -24.8%
• By 2100: 33,772 · -44.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Belknap

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 43.1% · R 56.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.2pp toward R · 2008: 1.2pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Current HPI: 436.242
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+753.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $169,900 PrimeMLS
• 2020-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2008-12-15 Sold (MLS) $18,500 PrimeMLS
• 2008-05-08 Listed $19,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,833 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.